The foreclosure crisis may be coming to a middle-class neighborhood near you. As joblessness continues to rise and as a person'sunemployment lasts on average 6.5 months, roughly 3.4 million homes are expected to go into foreclosure by the end of 2009. That's up from 1.2 million homes in 2007, according to RealtyTrac, a subscription-based site that tracks foreclosures nationwide. "We're not out of the woods yet," says Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president.
Sharga recently spoke to NEWSWEEK's Nancy Cook about the various waves of the foreclosure crisis, the future of homeownership and why the Obama administration’s loan-modification program won't stem this latest crop of foreclosures. Excerpts:
What's this new "wave" in the foreclosure crisis?The first wave was caused by bad loan products, while the second will be driven by unemployment. Right now, we're at the beginning of wave two. There are virtually no more foreclosures that are the result of subprime lending. The demographics of the foreclosure crisis are changing and affecting people who were blue collar and entry to midlevel white collar. We're now seeing foreclosures on properties with higher loan values. Probably the single best predictor of the areas hardest hit in next wave will be where you will see rising unemployment rates. The third wave is going to involve borrowers who had adjustable rate loans, in which they had the option of deciding what payment to make including interest-only payments. These loans are going to default at ridiculous rates, and that wave will go from the middle of next year until 2011.
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